How often our verdicts matched real offers
We test the method on a year it hasn’t seen: we work out each verdict from the years before it that we have figures for (up to five), then check what actually happened. Our target is that at least 9 in 10 “Likely” results were offered a place and at least 9 in 10 “Unlikely” results were not.
Harrow: 2026 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2025 figures (4 years), checked against 2026 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. The sample homes are the centre points of postcodes, one per postcode, which is less precise than exact addresses.
When we said Likely at a school that filled up in 2026, a child at that home would have been offered a place 1,941 times out of 1,941.
- “Likely” results offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 1,941 of 1,941
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 5,156 of 5,156
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 5,690 of 5,986
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 5,690 of 7,932
- “Borderline” results, at schools where places ran out
- 1,352 in, 861 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- At every school: 11,120 in, 861 out
- Meets both targets
- No
- Why: built from only 4 years of figures; most misses were at Norbury School, Pinner Park Primary School, Heathland School and 3 more.
- 25,069 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2026, where any verdict is right. The big figures count only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test; the line under each counts every school. This back-test misses a target. It was worked out from only 4 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
Grimsdyke School, Heathland School, Krishna Avanti Primary School, Norbury School, Pinner Park Primary School and Roxeth Primary School. At these schools, fewer of our verdicts matched what happened in 2026 than our target. Treat their ratings with extra care, and look at how their cut-offs changed from year to year on each school’s page.
See every school’s back-test (40 schools)
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avanti House Primary School | 72 of 72 | 36 of 36 | 58 / 213 | Yes |
| Aylward Primary School | 638 of 638 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Belmont School | 1132 of 1132 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Camrose Primary With Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 637 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Cannon Lane Primary School | 91 of 91 | 254 of 254 | 24 / 233 | Yes |
| Cedars Manor School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 977 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Earlsmead Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 466 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Elmgrove Primary School & Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1072 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Glebe Primary School | 214 of 214 | 0 of 0 | 530 / 0 | Yes |
| Grange Primary School | 359 of 359 | 0 of 0 | 566 / 0 | Yes |
| Grimsdyke School | 100 of 100 | 171 of 237 | 152 / 0 | No |
| Heathland School | 78 of 78 | 0 of 432 | 113 / 0 | No |
| Hujjat Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Kenmore Park Infant and Nursery School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 813 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Krishna Avanti Primary School | 15 of 15 | 391 of 457 | 60 / 0 | No |
| Longfield Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1041 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Marlborough Primary School | 101 of 101 | 863 of 932 | 161 / 0 | Yes |
| Newton Farm Nursery, Infant and Junior School | 13 of 13 | 658 of 659 | 29 / 0 | Yes |
| Norbury School | 54 of 54 | 0 of 1026 | 76 / 0 | No |
| Pinner Park Primary School | 97 of 97 | 0 of 488 | 547 / 0 | No |
| Pinner Wood School | 59 of 59 | 244 of 244 | 46 / 24 | Yes |
| Priestmead Primary School and Nursery | 64 of 64 | 884 of 884 | 183 / 2 | Yes |
| Roxbourne Primary School | 90 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 503 / 0 | Yes |
| Roxeth Primary School | 75 of 75 | 609 of 688 | 80 / 0 | No |
| Saint Jerome Church of England Bilingual School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Anselm's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Bernadette's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St George's Primary Catholic Voluntary Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St John Fisher Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St John's CofE School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Teresa's Catholic Primary School and Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Stag Lane Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 517 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Stanburn Primary School | 280 of 280 | 0 of 0 | 295 / 389 | Yes |
| The Welldon Park Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 606 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Vaughan Primary School | 21 of 21 | 1077 of 1086 | 31 / 0 | Yes |
| Weald Rise Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1014 / 0 | Not enough results |
| West Lodge Primary School | 69 of 69 | 503 of 509 | 47 / 0 | Yes |
| Whitchurch Primary School & Nursery | 553 of 553 | 0 of 0 | 290 / 0 | Yes |
| Whitefriars School | 981 of 981 | 0 of 0 | 186 / 0 | Yes |
Generated
Earlier back-tests
Harrow: 2025 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2024 figures (3 years), checked against 2025 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. The sample homes are the centre points of postcodes, one per postcode, which is less precise than exact addresses.
When we said Likely at a school that filled up in 2025, a child at that home would have been offered a place 1,567 times out of 1,569.
- “Likely” results offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 1,567 of 1,569
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 3,350 of 3,352
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 5,898 of 7,353
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 5,898 of 8,077
- “Borderline” results, at schools where places ran out
- 1,329 in, 1,116 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- At every school: 11,992 in, 1,116 out
- Meets both targets
- No
- Why: built from only 3 years of figures; most misses were at Marlborough Primary School, Heathland School, Roxbourne Primary School and 4 more.
- 24,537 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2025, where any verdict is right. The big figures count only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test; the line under each counts every school. This back-test misses a target. It was worked out from only 3 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
Grimsdyke School, Heathland School, Marlborough Primary School, Roxbourne Primary School, Roxeth Primary School, West Lodge Primary School and Whitchurch Primary School & Nursery. At these schools, fewer of our verdicts matched what happened in 2025 than our target. Treat their ratings with extra care, and look at how their cut-offs changed from year to year on each school’s page.
See every school’s back-test (40 schools)
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avanti House Primary School | 72 of 72 | 36 of 36 | 270 / 1 | Yes |
| Aylward Primary School | 638 of 638 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Belmont School | 180 of 180 | 0 of 0 | 952 / 0 | Yes |
| Camrose Primary With Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 637 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Cannon Lane Primary School | 102 of 102 | 254 of 254 | 101 / 145 | Yes |
| Cedars Manor School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 977 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Earlsmead Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 466 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Elmgrove Primary School & Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1072 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Glebe Primary School | 119 of 119 | 0 of 0 | 625 / 0 | Yes |
| Grange Primary School | 359 of 359 | 0 of 0 | 566 / 0 | Yes |
| Grimsdyke School | 100 of 100 | 237 of 340 | 49 / 0 | No |
| Heathland School | 78 of 78 | 0 of 445 | 100 / 0 | No |
| Hujjat Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Kenmore Park Infant and Nursery School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 813 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Krishna Avanti Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Longfield Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1041 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Marlborough Primary School | 48 of 48 | 0 of 1093 | 53 / 0 | No |
| Newton Farm Nursery, Infant and Junior School | 13 of 13 | 606 of 672 | 16 / 0 | Yes |
| Norbury School | 37 of 37 | 1026 of 1026 | 84 / 9 | Yes |
| Pinner Park Primary School | 225 of 227 | 488 of 488 | 0 / 417 | Yes |
| Pinner Wood School | 58 of 58 | 244 of 244 | 37 / 34 | Yes |
| Priestmead Primary School and Nursery | 116 of 116 | 884 of 884 | 26 / 107 | Yes |
| Roxbourne Primary School | 90 of 90 | 0 of 253 | 250 / 0 | No |
| Roxeth Primary School | 75 of 75 | 565 of 704 | 64 / 0 | No |
| Saint Jerome Church of England Bilingual School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Anselm's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Bernadette's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St George's Primary Catholic Voluntary Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St John Fisher Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St John's CofE School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Teresa's Catholic Primary School and Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Stag Lane Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 517 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Stanburn Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 565 / 399 | Not enough results |
| The Welldon Park Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 606 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Vaughan Primary School | 21 of 21 | 1086 of 1086 | 27 / 4 | Yes |
| Weald Rise Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1014 / 0 | Not enough results |
| West Lodge Primary School | 62 of 62 | 472 of 526 | 37 / 0 | No |
| Whitchurch Primary School & Nursery | 285 of 285 | 0 of 26 | 532 / 0 | No |
| Whitefriars School | 672 of 672 | 0 of 0 | 495 / 0 | Yes |
Generated
Lambeth: 2026 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2023 to 2025 figures (3 years), checked against 2026 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. Sample: Home points supplied with --points (postcodes.csv).
When we said Likely at a school that filled up in 2026, a child at that home would have been offered a place 330 times out of 337.
- “Likely” results offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 330 of 337
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 496 of 503
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 3,587 of 3,978
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 3,587 of 6,144
- “Borderline” results, at schools where places ran out
- 772 in, 62 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- At every school: 19,619 in, 62 out
- Meets both targets
- No
- Why: built from only 3 years of figures; most misses were at St Jude's Church of England Primary School, Wyvil Primary School and Resource Bases for Speech, Language and Communication Needs, and Autism, Rosendale Primary School and 1 more.
- 26,328 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2026, where any verdict is right. The big figures count only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test; the line under each counts every school. This back-test misses a target. It was worked out from only 3 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
Immanuel and St Andrew Church of England Primary School, Rosendale Primary School, St Jude's Church of England Primary School and Wyvil Primary School and Resource Bases for Speech, Language and Communication Needs, and Autism. At these schools, fewer of our verdicts matched what happened in 2026 than our target. Treat their ratings with extra care, and look at how their cut-offs changed from year to year on each school’s page.
See every school’s back-test (60 schools)
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Edwards Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Archbishop Sumner Church of England Primary School | 80 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 616 / 0 | Yes |
| Ashmole Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Bonneville Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Christ Church Primary SW9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1158 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Christ Church, Streatham Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1323 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Clapham Manor Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Corpus Christi Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Crown Lane Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Dunraven School | 187 of 187 | 191 of 191 | 624 / 0 | Yes |
| Elm Wood School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Fenstanton Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Glenbrook Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Granton Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Heathbrook Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Henry Cavendish Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Henry Fawcett Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Herbert Morrison Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Hill Mead Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Hitherfield Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Holy Trinity Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1406 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Immanuel and St Andrew Church of England Primary School | 26 of 33 | 433 of 433 | 0 / 42 | No |
| Iqra Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Jessop Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Jubilee Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Julian's School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Kingswood Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Larkhall Primary Campus | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Loughborough Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Macaulay Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1078 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Oasis Academy South Bank Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Paxton Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Reay Primary School | 88 of 88 | 1008 of 1008 | 74 / 20 | Yes |
| Richard Atkins Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Rosendale Primary School | 29 of 29 | 613 of 1004 | 74 / 0 | No |
| St Andrew's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Andrew's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1379 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Anne's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 984 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Bede's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1205 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Helen's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1386 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St John the Divine Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1063 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St John's Angell Town Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1341 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Jude's Church of England Primary School | 42 of 42 | 0 of 1307 | 48 / 0 | No |
| St Leonard's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 705 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Luke's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 655 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Mark's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1011 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Mary's Roman Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Saviour's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1188 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Stephen's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Stockwell Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Streatham Wells Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Sudbourne Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Sunnyhill Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Telferscot Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| The Orchard School | 0 of 0 | 1342 of 1342 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Van Gogh Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1237 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Vauxhall Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 847 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Walnut Tree Walk Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Woodmansterne School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Wyvil Primary School and Resource Bases for Speech, Language and Communication Needs, and Autism | 44 of 44 | 0 of 859 | 217 / 0 | No |
Generated
Lewisham: 2026 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2025 figures (4 years), checked against 2026 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. Sample: Home points supplied with --points (postcodes.csv).
When we said Likely at a school that filled up in 2026, a child at that home would have been offered a place 1,329 times out of 2,215.
- “Likely” results offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 1,329 of 2,215
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 7,023 of 7,909
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 10,346 of 11,042
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 10,346 of 15,780
- “Borderline” results, at schools where places ran out
- 779 in, 2,624 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- At every school: 8,742 in, 2,624 out
- Meets both targets
- No
- Why: built from only 4 years of figures; most misses were at Stillness Infant School, Kilmorie Primary School, Torridon Primary School and 12 more.
- 35,055 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2026, where any verdict is right. The big figures count only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test; the line under each counts every school. This back-test misses a target. It was worked out from only 4 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
Adamsrill Primary School, Baring Primary School, Brindishe Green School, Cooper's Lane Primary School, Dalmain Primary School, Eliot Bank Primary School, Kilmorie Primary School, Launcelot Primary School and Nursery, Myatt Garden Primary School, Oak Gardens Primary School, Perrymount Primary School, Rangefield Primary School, Rathfern Primary School, Stillness Infant School and Torridon Primary School. At these schools, fewer of our verdicts matched what happened in 2026 than our target. Treat their ratings with extra care, and look at how their cut-offs changed from year to year on each school’s page.
See every school’s back-test (67 schools)
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adamsrill Primary School | 149 of 149 | 0 of 344 | 329 / 0 | No |
| All Saints' Church of England Primary School Blackheath | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Ashmead Primary School | 66 of 66 | 855 of 855 | 27 / 146 | Yes |
| Athelney Primary School | 1044 of 1044 | 0 of 0 | 55 / 0 | Yes |
| Baring Primary School | 70 of 70 | 0 of 490 | 256 / 0 | No |
| Beecroft Garden Primary | 128 of 128 | 1029 of 1029 | 8 / 98 | Yes |
| Brindishe Green School | 62 of 62 | 721 of 1049 | 51 / 0 | No |
| Brindishe Lee School | 9 of 9 | 760 of 829 | 15 / 0 | Yes |
| Brindishe Manor School | 13 of 13 | 889 of 936 | 22 / 0 | Yes |
| Childeric Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Cooper's Lane Primary School | 106 of 106 | 0 of 414 | 97 / 0 | No |
| Dalmain Primary School | 123 of 252 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 799 | No |
| Deptford Park Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 542 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Downderry Primary School | 31 of 31 | 614 of 614 | 19 / 57 | Yes |
| Edmund Waller Primary School | 28 of 28 | 724 of 724 | 46 / 6 | Yes |
| Elfrida Primary School | 961 of 961 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Eliot Bank Primary School | 87 of 87 | 301 of 367 | 179 / 0 | No |
| Fairlawn Primary School | 185 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 229 / 438 | Yes |
| Forster Park Primary School | 213 of 213 | 0 of 0 | 597 / 0 | Yes |
| Good Shepherd RC School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Gordonbrock Primary School | 35 of 35 | 1213 of 1213 | 48 / 54 | Yes |
| Grinling Gibbons Primary School | 211 of 211 | 0 of 0 | 516 / 0 | Yes |
| Haberdashers' Hatcham Free School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Haberdashers' Hatcham Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Haberdashers' Knights Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Haseltine Primary School | 307 of 307 | 0 of 0 | 540 / 0 | Yes |
| Holbeach Primary School | 375 of 375 | 0 of 0 | 1019 / 0 | Yes |
| Holy Cross Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Holy Trinity Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Horniman Primary School | 20 of 20 | 697 of 697 | 12 / 8 | Yes |
| John Ball Primary School | 76 of 76 | 609 of 609 | 50 / 58 | Yes |
| John Stainer Community Primary School | 189 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 929 / 0 | Yes |
| Kelvin Grove Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 572 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Kender Primary School | 133 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 564 / 0 | Yes |
| Kilmorie Primary School | 30 of 30 | 0 of 913 | 66 / 0 | No |
| Launcelot Primary School and Nursery | 45 of 258 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 251 | No |
| Marvels Lane Primary School | 331 of 331 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Myatt Garden Primary School | 262 of 622 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 425 | No |
| Oak Gardens Primary School | 507 of 507 | 0 of 65 | 443 / 0 | No |
| Our Lady and St Philip Neri Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Perrymount Primary School | 111 of 111 | 0 of 521 | 218 / 0 | No |
| Prendergast Ladywell School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Prendergast Vale School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Rangefield Primary School | 102 of 286 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 284 | No |
| Rathfern Primary School | 40 of 40 | 928 of 1107 | 39 / 0 | No |
| Rushey Green Primary School | 817 of 817 | 0 of 0 | 529 / 0 | Yes |
| Sandhurst Primary School | 17 of 17 | 1006 of 1013 | 34 / 0 | Yes |
| St Augustine's Catholic Primary School and Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Bartholomews's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St George's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St James's Hatcham Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St John Baptist Southend Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Margaret's Lee CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Mary's Lewisham Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Matthew Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Michael's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Saviour's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Stephen's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St William of York Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| St Winifred's RC Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Stillness Infant School | 26 of 26 | 0 of 1205 | 26 / 0 | No |
| Tidemill Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Torridon Primary School | 71 of 71 | 0 of 786 | 126 / 0 | No |
| Trinity Church of England School, Lewisham | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Turnham Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2026 figure |
| Twin Oaks Primary School | 43 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 539 / 0 | Yes |
Generated
Earlier back-tests
Lewisham: 2025 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2024 figures (3 years), checked against 2025 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. Sample: Home points supplied with --points (postcodes.csv).
When we said Likely at a school that filled up in 2025, a child at that home would have been offered a place 2,645 times out of 2,645.
- “Likely” results offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 2,645 of 2,645
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 6,477 of 6,477
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place, at schools where places ran out
- 13,044 of 14,278
- Target: at least 9 in 10 (the marker)
- At every school: 13,044 of 20,035
- “Borderline” results, at schools where places ran out
- 3,063 in, 749 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- At every school: 7,222 in, 749 out
- Meets both targets
- No
- Why: built from only 3 years of figures; most misses were at Stillness Infant School, John Stainer Community Primary School, Dalmain Primary School and 11 more.
- 34,483 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2025, where any verdict is right. The big figures count only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test; the line under each counts every school. This back-test misses a target. It was worked out from only 3 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
Adamsrill Primary School, Baring Primary School, Cooper's Lane Primary School, Dalmain Primary School, Eliot Bank Primary School, Forster Park Primary School, Grinling Gibbons Primary School, Holbeach Primary School, John Stainer Community Primary School, Kilmorie Primary School, Perrymount Primary School, Rangefield Primary School, Stillness Infant School and Twin Oaks Primary School. At these schools, fewer of our verdicts matched what happened in 2025 than our target. Treat their ratings with extra care, and look at how their cut-offs changed from year to year on each school’s page.
See every school’s back-test (67 schools)
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adamsrill Primary School | 72 of 72 | 0 of 470 | 280 / 0 | No |
| All Saints' Church of England Primary School Blackheath | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Ashmead Primary School | 87 of 87 | 855 of 855 | 56 / 96 | Yes |
| Athelney Primary School | 1044 of 1044 | 0 of 0 | 55 / 0 | Yes |
| Baring Primary School | 70 of 70 | 490 of 674 | 72 / 0 | No |
| Beecroft Garden Primary | 129 of 129 | 1029 of 1029 | 101 / 4 | Yes |
| Brindishe Green School | 46 of 46 | 985 of 1049 | 67 / 0 | Yes |
| Brindishe Lee School | 9 of 9 | 808 of 831 | 13 / 0 | Yes |
| Brindishe Manor School | 13 of 13 | 932 of 938 | 20 / 0 | Yes |
| Childeric Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Cooper's Lane Primary School | 75 of 75 | 0 of 472 | 70 / 0 | No |
| Dalmain Primary School | 130 of 130 | 0 of 799 | 122 / 0 | No |
| Deptford Park Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 542 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Downderry Primary School | 28 of 28 | 608 of 647 | 46 / 0 | Yes |
| Edmund Waller Primary School | 34 of 34 | 724 of 724 | 19 / 27 | Yes |
| Elfrida Primary School | 961 of 961 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Eliot Bank Primary School | 44 of 44 | 367 of 453 | 136 / 0 | No |
| Fairlawn Primary School | 105 of 105 | 0 of 0 | 747 / 0 | Yes |
| Forster Park Primary School | 137 of 137 | 0 of 390 | 283 / 0 | No |
| Good Shepherd RC School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Gordonbrock Primary School | 60 of 60 | 1213 of 1213 | 10 / 67 | Yes |
| Grinling Gibbons Primary School | 126 of 126 | 0 of 359 | 242 / 0 | No |
| Haberdashers' Hatcham Free School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Haberdashers' Hatcham Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Haberdashers' Knights Primary | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Haseltine Primary School | 466 of 466 | 0 of 0 | 108 / 273 | Yes |
| Holbeach Primary School | 36 of 36 | 0 of 608 | 750 / 0 | No |
| Holy Cross Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Holy Trinity Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Horniman Primary School | 15 of 15 | 697 of 700 | 22 / 0 | Yes |
| John Ball Primary School | 95 of 95 | 609 of 609 | 40 / 49 | Yes |
| John Stainer Community Primary School | 108 of 108 | 0 of 929 | 81 / 0 | No |
| Kelvin Grove Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Kender Primary School | 81 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 616 / 0 | Yes |
| Kilmorie Primary School | 17 of 17 | 336 of 955 | 37 / 0 | No |
| Launcelot Primary School and Nursery | 258 of 258 | 0 of 0 | 251 / 0 | Yes |
| Marvels Lane Primary School | 331 of 331 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Myatt Garden Primary School | 378 of 378 | 0 of 0 | 669 / 0 | Yes |
| Oak Gardens Primary School | 287 of 287 | 65 of 65 | 491 / 172 | Yes |
| Our Lady and St Philip Neri Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Perrymount Primary School | 61 of 61 | 521 of 630 | 159 / 0 | No |
| Prendergast Ladywell School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Prendergast Vale School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Rangefield Primary School | 155 of 155 | 0 of 53 | 362 / 0 | No |
| Rathfern Primary School | 21 of 21 | 1006 of 1107 | 58 / 0 | Yes |
| Rushey Green Primary School | 817 of 817 | 0 of 0 | 529 / 0 | Yes |
| Sandhurst Primary School | 21 of 21 | 1013 of 1013 | 20 / 10 | Yes |
| St Augustine's Catholic Primary School and Nursery | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Bartholomews's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St George's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St James's Hatcham Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St John Baptist Southend Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Margaret's Lee CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Mary's Lewisham Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Matthew Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Michael's Church of England Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Saviour's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Stephen's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St William of York Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| St Winifred's RC Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Stillness Infant School | 23 of 23 | 0 of 1209 | 25 / 0 | No |
| Tidemill Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Torridon Primary School | 94 of 94 | 786 of 786 | 52 / 51 | Yes |
| Trinity Church of England School, Lewisham | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Turnham Academy | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No 2025 figure |
| Twin Oaks Primary School | 43 of 43 | 0 of 468 | 71 / 0 | No |
Generated